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Alexander MacInnis's avatar

Thanks... I just now saw this post. Another in a long series of truly excellent posts.

One important comment: Not only does that preliminary observational study abstract presented at AHA not prove that melatonin causes heart failure, it doesn't provide any evidence of that.

The problem is called "confounding by indication." The subjects included were prescribed melatonin. There must have been a reason (an "indication') for those prescriptions. It is quite possible that the underlying indication was itself a cause of heart failure. Simple associations such as this cannot even begin to show the direction of causality.

Consider this more extreme example: People prescribed cancer treatment drugs are more likely to die of cancer than those who were not. Does that mean the drugs cause cancer? Of course not.

Linda Marr's avatar

Thank you for this thoughtful, clear summary. I too have a grandson who loves to give me his germs!! When do you generally take melatonin -- right at bedtime or a bit before? I recently started Lion's Mane at night for sleep as well. Thanks!

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